Raja Jasti’s Blog - Renaissance Thinking

November 16, 2009

Biggest mobile opportunities

Filed under: Business, Mobile, Trends — Raja @ 4:04 pm

From Mobile Northwest conference:

So, what are the big market opportunities? Huseby said there’s two big problems that need solving in mobile: meeting bandwidth demands by carriers and how to pay for that bandwidth. “My friends and carriers are promising always-on connectivity. It’s really hard to do that….If you can think of a way to do it in a way that’s less expensive, there’s opportunities.”

He said that if bandwidth is the first problem, the next is how are carriers going to pay for it. He asked the crowd “how many people think they will pay less and consume more data in the next year?” Nearly everyone raised their hand. “They aren’t going to get the money from us. I think they will have to get it from advertising. That’s one major source of revenue.”

T-Mobile’s Puneet Tandon, who also sat on the panel, approached the question from a different view. If bandwidth is increasing exponentially, and advertising is one of the avenues for additional revenues, then measuring, monitoring and having insights into what people are doing on the mobile web will be critical.

November 13, 2009

News Corp wants to opt out of Google

Filed under: Internet, Media — Tags: — Raja @ 12:40 pm

Rupert Murdoch wants to remove all of News corp’s content from Google index ‘within months’.

Rupert Murdoch to remove News Corps content from Google 'within months'
Rupert Murdoch has warned that his paywall plans could be delayed

Jonathan Miller, News Corp’s chief digital officer, said the media mogul was ready to block Google’s access to his sites soon and that the company would lead the media industry in this direction.

“There is real tension surrounding the free versus pay debate,” Mr Miller told the Monaco Media Forum on Friday. “It will play out in the next two years. We believe that the value of high quality content is not recognised online [by giving its away for free) so something needs to happen.

“I don’t believe the media industry can continue to exist in this way.”

When asked how long it would be before Mr Murdoch took the step to block Google, which every media company relies upon to send them high levels of web traffic, Mr Miller said it would be soon – “months and quarters – not weeks”.

He also said that News Corporation, which owns The Times and The Sun newspapers in Britain, could survive both economically and audience-wise without the search giant driving traffic to its sites.

“The traffic which comes in from Google brings a consumer who more often than not read one article and then leaves the site. That is the least valuable of traffic to us… the economic impact [of not having content indexed by Google] is not as great as you might think. You can survive without it.”

However, Mr Miller admitted News Corporation could not make the bold step alone but was prepared to lead other media companies in this direction. “We will lead. There is a pent up need for this. There has to be a resolution for the free versus pay debate otherwise we cannot afford to pay for things like news bureaus in Kabul.”

A Google spokesperson said earlier this week: “Google News and web search are a tremendous source of promotion for news organisations, sending them about 100,000 clicks every minute.

“Publishers put their content on the web because they want it to be found, so very few choose not to include their material in Google News and web search. But if they tell us not to include it, we don’t.”

I think if this does come true, it could have mammoth impact on the Newspaper industry’s future. If News corp’s bold move can bring google to share revenues with the news content owners, it could be a real shot in the arm for the industry. More likely though google would shrug at this as it has plenty of other sources in their index. It is a simple matter of supply and demand. Google holds the cards right now. But if the most of top news companies band together then may be they would have some leverage. Would this move by News corp rally others do the same? It will be interesting to see. The other thing it could do is to play MS against Google to get someone to pay to index their content (that would most probably be MS).

Eric Schmidt Interview Video

Filed under: Mobile, Technology — Raja @ 11:49 am

Eric Schmidt talks about android and other google products.

November 10, 2009

Mobile startup lessons from Admob CEO

Filed under: Entrepreneurship, Mobile, Technology — Raja @ 3:03 pm

You want to know why mobile is huge. Google shelled out $750M for a 3 year old mobile web ad startup. Here is an interview of Omar Hamoui, CEO of AdMob. He has very interesting prespectives on startups, fundraising and mobile space.

One interesting titbit is that Sequoia gave him a term sheet in less than 24 hours after meeting him. He is just one guy with a loptop. Sequoia saw soemething in him that made them move so quickly. Now they are getting a huge payoff. That’s why they are Sequoia. They bet on markets and take risks on team and technology. That seems to work well for them.

“I had to do the pitch [to Sequoia] like four or five times,” he tells Scoble, “because it has to be a unanimous decision. Every partner has to see it, and every partner has to vote yes otherwise they won’t do it….The overall market opportunity is extremely substantial. And they tend to be market investors, so they’re whole theory is that if the market is spectacular, even a sub-optimal product with a sub-optimal team will do fantastically well. Not that, hopefully, we are either.”

Killing the India SMS golden goose

Filed under: Uncategorized — Raja @ 9:37 am

There is a tremendous amount of innovation happening in the mobile space as the platform is being made more open by iphone, android etc. This is happening mostly despite the carriers, not because of them. In India smart phone usage is rather small though growing. SMS is the killer platform in India. There is a healthy innovative ecosystem developing in India around SMS apps fueled in part by low SMS costs. Now that is being threatened by greed of some carriers, namely airlet and tata indicom, who have started charging exorbitant interconnect charges.

India’s push SMS industry is facing a challenge with operators Airtel and Tata Indicom increasing the interconnect charges applicable on application to person (A2P)  SMSs on each other’s network. A2P SMSs include marketing information text messages relayed by enterprises such as banks, airlines, theatres, or by content aggregators.

These push SMSs, when sent via telecom networks are being charged an ‘interconnect’ fee by the receiving operator. With the change, the cost of SMS is expected to increase from around 4 to 5 paise per SMS, to as high as 10-15 paise. Tata Indicom’s increase in interconnect fees to Airtel network has been effective since November 1, 2009. Harsh Janeja, Head of Bulk Business, Tata Indicom, confirmed to Medianama that the hike was instituted 5 days ago and that a mail was circulated to all aggregators informing them of the new pricing: 15 paise per A2P (application to person) SMS delivered to an Airtel number via the Tata Indicom network.

This stepping up of prices, the matter of intense discussions amongst telecom industry executives, will hit off-deck mobile marketing companies and enterprises, which may not absorb it and choose to pass on the cost to the consumer or advertiser. Prabhat Kumar, Director at ACL Wireless, said that “In terms of pricing, this will affect our contracts with customers and the fixed prices some had established. Also, alerts for customers will be impacted. It is a tough time and now, aggregators with most operator partnerships will be the ones who will gain.” ACL Wireless will be passing on  40-50% of the costs to customers and will be looking at new avenues such as IVR or enterprise solutions to keep margins balanced.

The push SMS market which used to be only 500 million messages has grown into a 3 billion messages industry. “The market is getting hotter but stagnating,” is how Kumar puts it. Smaller companies, Kumar felt, that have been using it for marketing promotion to reach large number of users will be impacted the most and might have to reconsider their mobile advertising strategy and compare it with other advertising channels such as the Internet and radio now.

“After all, what cost Rs. 30 lakhs to reach 10 million customers, after interconnect prices, would shoot up to Rs. 80 lakhs,” he explains. He believes that companies with A2P such as Netcore and Way2sms will be affected most.

Vaishnavi said, “Advertisers will get highly impacted and we have to see if they are willing to pay the premium.”

So what used to be simple uniform pricing model has overnight become complex, carrier specific and expensive. I am afraid the promising SMS ecosystem will die unless tata indicom and airtel stop this stupid move and cancel interconnect charges. If they do not see the light then TRAI should step in and fix this mess before it is too late.

Mobile phone as a medical lab

Filed under: Mobile, Technology, Trends — Tags: — Raja @ 9:17 am

One of the most promising application in mobile healthcare is remote diagnostics using the mobile phone. This can impact billions of people that do not have proper access to healthcare around the world. Here is a glimpse of such a future.

Your mobile phone may soon be able to diagnose respiratory illnesses in seconds when you cough into it

Apple iPhone. Cough into your mobile phone for instant diagnosis
But will it ask you to turn your head to one side as well?

Software being developed by American and Australian scientists will hopefully allow patients simply to cough into their phone, and it will tell them whether they have cold, flu, pneumonia or other respiratory diseases.

Whether a cough is dry or wet, or “productive” or “non-productive” (referring to the presence of mucus on the lungs), can give a doctor information about what is causing that cough, for example whether it is caused by a bacterial or a viral infection.

Health workers can distinguish the different kinds of cough by sound. Now, it is claimed, the new software will do the same, and will save patients a trip to the surgery – or tell them when they are at risk of serious illness.

Suzanne Smith of STAR Analytical Services, the firm behind the research, says: “Why haven’t we been measuring coughs?

“It’s the most common symptom when a patient presents, and we are relying on doctors and nurses with good old technology from the 19th century.”

Coughs typically last around one-quarter of a second, comprising a sharp intake of breath, a silent exhalation and then the complex burst of sounds that makes the cough noise.

Healthy, voluntary coughs tend to be slightly louder than the involuntary coughs of an ill person. And after the initial explosive sound, there are subtleties like vibrating vocal cords and mucus that reveal information about what is happening in the patient’s respiratory system.

The software would compare the patient’s cough to a pre-recorded database of coughs, containing the sounds of all respiratory diseases from people of both sexes and various ages, weights and other variables.

Currently the STAR team has a database of several dozen patients, but they estimate they will need a total of around 1,000 before the software will be reliable.

The software is currently run on a computer, but it is anticipated that it could be rewritten as a smartphone application.

November 9, 2009

Big day for M&A

Filed under: Business, Internet, Mobile — Tags: , — Raja @ 10:24 am

Today is a big day for tech M&A sector.

Google clearly identifies mobile as the source of their growth beyond the web. Today they acquired mobile ad company AdMob for $750M.

Google has just announced that it has acquired AdMob, the mobile ad platform that has been especially popular on the iPhone, for $750 million. This is a big win for the company’s early investors, which include Sequoia Capital and Accel Partners (this is a huge day for Accel — they were also investors in Playfish, which was just acquired by EA). More recent investors include DFJ and Northgate Capital.

Today also saw EA acquiring web social gaming company Playfish for $300M with another $100M in earn outs.

After lengthy negotiations, Electronic Arts closed it’s anticipated acquisition of social gaming startup Playfish for $275 million in cash. An additional $25 million in stock will be set aside for retaining the top talent at the startup, and another $100 million in earnouts are part of the deal as well if the business hits certain milestones. So the total value of the deal could amount to as much as $400 million when all is said and done. Although, earnouts have a tendency to come up short (see Skype).

Playfish is based in London, and has raised $21 million from Accel Partners and Index ventures. The Accel investment is from its European fund. Playfish’s estimated annual revenues are $75 million.

November 7, 2009

Power of less

Filed under: Entrepreneurship — Raja @ 12:11 pm

From Forbes:

Minimalist design has been in vogue for decades. But when did we become enamored of the stripped-down business practice? When did business really start to leverage the power of less?

Google ( GOOG - news - people ) has led the way here. Remember the first time you landed on that spare, slightly dorky page, with just a multicolor logo and an empty box? We take it for granted now, but at the time it was revolutionary; every other search portal was competing to cram as many links, categories, ads and blinking gifs into 800×1200 pixels as it could. How, we asked, could a site with nothing on it make any money? How long will it be around?

Long enough to see the rise of Twitter, which took the art of less to the next level. What does the service do? It allows people to publish their thoughts in 140 characters or less. That’s it? What can you really say in 140 characters? Who could possibly care? How can Twitter possibly grow?

Surprisingly, Twitter has seen astronomical user growth the past year due to people’s insatiable need to communicate. And unlike Google, which is now “boiling a dozen oceans” (to paraphrase tech pundit John Battelle), Twitter has pretty much stuck to its knitting and let thousands of third parties build out applications, services and even advertising. Indeed, celebrities use Twitter as a publicity tool. How much could each of those celebrity tweets be worth in traditional advertising?

So, Twitter doesn’t need to advertise. The company doesn’t even have a marketing department. Nor does it have a PR dept. It’s mostly a bunch of engineers.

And by the way, what makes the engineers at most Web 2.0 start-ups successful is that they do less than traditional software engineers. Instead of building detailed specifications, the new generation of coders practices agile development, which stresses quick iteration and flexibility over detailed planning and documentation.

They release their products early and often, and they pay as much attention to their customers’ input as they do to any static blueprint.

The reasons for less being more has to do with being able to do less much better than anyone else and peole understanding your value proposition much more clearly and with minimal effort and in short time. That is the key to simple.

Less also helps the entrepreneurs understand their value proposition better.

If you can’t explain your mission in the form, “We help $TYPE_OF_PERSON be awesome at $THING,” you are not going to have passionate users.

Amen.

Microsoft = GM of software?

Filed under: Business, Internet, Trends — Raja @ 12:03 pm

This is the question posed in a fortune piece by Jay Galbraith.

The more I learn about the current situation in software, the more Microsoft’s position seems to mirror General Motors’ position in the auto industry a few decades ago. Like Microsoft (MSFT) today, GM was an icon in its industry, held a quasi-monopoly, produced eye-popping profits and was often distracted by antitrust lawsuits. When a company experiences this kind of environment over a couple of decades, it eventually loses its competitiveness. Of course, Microsoft would vigorously deny any such comparison. The top executives in Redmond, Wash., claim to be on top of the trends in the industry. They are confident they can develop all the software they will need to be competitive.

I am not concerned about Microsoft developing the software. They always have. My question is whether they will develop the new business models. As computing moves away from the desktop and onto small mobile devices, the industry moves away from Microsoft’s strengths. Consumers are driving computing now, though, and customer-centricity is not a Microsoft competence. Steve Ballmer, Microsoft’s CEO, will have to give a lot of his famously YouTube-worthy stage performances to convert the middle managers who are currently enjoying monopoly profits.

Microsoft also suffers from the incumbent’s curse during a technological transition. The curse is well described in Clayton Christensen’s research. Cloud computing, in which software and other applications are housed in a central location and delivered over networks to end users, could lead to a shift away from desktop-based computing and from complicated operating systems. As Microsoft adapts to it, will it promote cloud computing or protect Windows? Will the team leading Microsoft’s Azure cloud computing business have the freedom to cannibalize the desktop? Or will it be integrated into Windows, where the desktop mafia will slow, modify and dilute the efforts to convert to a new business model?

I think cloud computing as it is called today is a major disrupting trend. It is not just a recent phenonmenon. We used to call this the ASP model during the dot com hey days. It went by SaaS for sometime and now the new buzz word is the cloud. But make no mistake about it. It will shake up the software/IT industry. We already have the early beneficiaries in Google, Salesforce.com and Amazon. But this is just the beginning. If you combine the cloud with mobile it is a powerful enabler. That is the key to take the power of the technology to masses and businesses all over the world. That is the direction I am aiming our company.

Money for nothing

Filed under: Entertainment, Internet — Tags: , — Raja @ 11:41 am

Virtual goods seem to be getting more and more popular.

 

Sara Merrill of Parsonfield, Me., with her cat, Demon Baby, bought for the game Pet Society.

SAN FRANCISCO — Silicon Valley may have discovered the perfect business: charging real money for products that do not exist.

These so-called virtual goods, like a $1 illustration of a Champagne bottle on Facebook or the $2.50 Halloween costume in the online game Sorority Life, are no more than a collection of pixels on a Web page.

But it is quickly becoming commonplace for people to spend a few dollars on them to get ahead in an online game or to give a friend a gift on a social network.

Analysts estimate that virtual goods could bring in a billion dollars in the United States and around $5 billion worldwide this year — all for things that, aside from perhaps a few hours of work by an artist and a programmer, cost nothing to produce.

“It’s a fantastic business,” said Jeremy Liew of Lightspeed Venture Partners, a venture capital firm that has invested $10 million in several virtual goods companies. “Because it’s digital, the marginal cost for every one you sell is zero, so you have 100 percent margins.”

The companies that create and sell virtual goods, including Zynga, Playfish and Playdom, three online gaming start-ups in the San Francisco area, say they are recording significant revenue and profits, which have been elusive for many Web companies.

Virtual goods have been popular in Asia for years. In the United States though, only ardent video game fans spent money on them, mostly for swords and spells in virtual fantasy realms. That is rapidly changing, driven by the popularity of widely appealing games for social networks like Facebook and mobile phones like the iPhone.

“The people playing these games on social networks don’t define themselves as gamers — they are just killing time, having fun,” Mr. Liew said.

In Restaurant City, a game by Playfish on Facebook, 18 million active users manage their own cafe and stock it with virtual casseroles and cakes. In Zynga’s game FarmVille, 62 million agrarian dreamers cultivate a farm, plant squash seeds and harvest their crops with tractors.

These games and many others have casual gamers reaching for their wallets, along with a few rationalizations, as they make the peculiar purchase of pixels on a computer screen.

“It’s an experience, like going to the movies. That’s how I describe it,” said Sara Merrill of Parsonfield, Me., who plays Pet Society on Facebook with her two young sons five times a week.

People are willing to spend money on them even in this tough economy. This reminds of of the famous Dire Straits song ‘Money for nothing’. This seems to be the answer to monetizing social networks. Ironnically facebook may not be making too much money from virtual goods yet. It is the companies like Zynga that are.

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