Raja Jasti’s Blog - Renaissance Thinking

March 13, 2010

Apple and Google battle for the future

Filed under: Business, Mobile — Raja @ 5:26 pm

Mobile is the future. Google and Apple know it and a battle royale is brewing.

Apple sees Android phones like the Motorola Droid, right, as iPhone clones. Google says some prototypes predate the iPhone, left.

IT looked like the beginning of a beautiful friendship.

Three years ago, Eric E. Schmidt, the chief executive of Google, jogged onto a San Francisco stage to shake hands with Steven P. Jobs, Apple’s co-founder, to help him unveil a transformational wonder gadget — the iPhone — before throngs of journalists and adoring fans at the annual MacWorld Expo.

Google and Apple had worked together to bring Google’s search and mapping services to the iPhone, the executives told the audience, and Mr. Schmidt joked that the collaboration was so close that the two men should simply merge their companies and call them “AppleGoo.”

“Steve, my congratulations to you,” Mr. Schmidt told his corporate ally. “This product is going to be hot.” Mr. Jobs acknowledged the compliment with an ear-to-ear smile.

Today, such warmth is in short supply. Mr. Jobs, Mr. Schmidt and their companies are now engaged in a gritty battle royale over the future and shape of mobile computing and cellphones, with implications that are reverberating across the digital landscape.

In the last six months, Apple and Google have jousted over acquisitions, patents, directors, advisers and iPhone applications. Mr. Jobs and Mr. Schmidt have taken shots at each other’s companies in the media and in private exchanges with employees.

This month, Apple sued HTC, the Taiwanese maker of mobile phones that run Google’s Android operating system, contending that HTC had violated iPhone patents. The move was widely seen as the beginning of a legal assault by Apple on Google itself, as well as an attempt to slow Google’s plans to extend its dominion to mobile devices.

Apple believes that devices like smartphones and tablets should have tightly controlled, proprietary standards and that customers should take advantage of services on those gadgets with applications downloaded from Apple’s own App Store.

Google, on the other hand, wants smartphones to have open, nonproprietary platforms so users can freely roam the Web for apps that work on many devices. Google has long feared that rivals like Microsoft or Apple or wireless carriers like Verizon could block access to its services on devices like smartphones, which could soon eclipse computers as the primary gateway to the Web. Google’s promotion of Android is, essentially, an effort to control its destiny in the mobile world.

While the discord between Apple and Google is in part philosophical and involves enormous financial stakes, the battle also has deeply personal overtones and echoes the ego-fueled fisticuffs that have long characterized technology industry feuds. (Think Intel vs. A.M.D., Microsoft vs. everybody, and so on.)

Yet according to interviews with two dozen industry watchers, Silicon Valley investors and current and former employees at both companies — most of whom requested anonymity to protect their jobs or business relationships — the clash between Mr. Schmidt and Mr. Jobs offers an unusually vivid display of enmity and ambition.

This competition is good for the ecosystem.

Then a wrestling match began on the acquisition front.

Last fall, Apple made a formal bid to acquire AdMob, a rapidly growing mobile advertising company, for $600 million. AdMob specializes in developing ads that run inside mobile phone applications, like those on the iPhone.

While Apple conducted due diligence on the deal, AdMob agreed to a 45-day “no shop” provision, a routine clause that prevented the start-up from offering itself for sale to others, according to three people briefed on the negotiations. But after Apple inexplicably let 45 days pass without consummating its offer, Google pounced.

Their interest piqued by Apple’s pursuit of the start-up, Mr. Schmidt, along with Mr. Page, Mr. Brin and other Google executives, began intensely courting Omar Hamoui, AdMob’s young chief executive. AdMob, the Google guys argued, belonged in their corporate family because Google — unlike Apple — was an old pro in advertising. They also promised that AdMob employees would be able to cash out stock options sooner than Apple’s deal would have allowed. It also didn’t hurt that Google was willing to pay a 25 percent premium over Apple’s offer.

Three days after the no-shop provision expired, Google agreed to buy AdMob — putting a whopping $750 million price tag on a four-year-old company with modest revenue. Jilted and angry, Mr. Jobs speculated that AdMob might have violated its legal obligations, with help from Google, according to two people briefed on the fallout from the negotiations.

(Neither AdMob nor Google would comment on any aspect of the process. The acquisition is being reviewed by the Federal Trade Commission for possible antitrust problems.)

One executive familiar with Google’s acquisitions strategy said the company was willing to pay a large premium for AdMob simply to keep the company out of Apple’s arms. “There is no way AdMob would have gotten $750 million if he wasn’t worried that it would end up in the hands of Steve,” the executive said. “Are they going to get $750 million in cash flow back? No way.”

March 6, 2010

The new color of money

Filed under: Business, Internet, Mobile, Trends — Raja @ 12:15 pm

Social media is making all transactions, even financial ones, frictionless.

Money

A simple typo gave Michael Ivey the idea for his company. One day in the fall of 2008, Ivey’s wife, using her pink RAZR phone, sent him a note via Twitter. But instead of typing the letter d at the beginning of the tweet — which would have sent the note as a direct message, a private note just for Ivey — she hit p. It could have been an embarrassing snafu, but instead it sparked a brainstorm. That’s how you should pay people, Ivey publicly replied. Ivey’s friends quickly jumped into the conversation, enthusiastically endorsing the idea. Ivey, a computer programmer based in Alabama, began wondering if he and his wife hadn’t hit on something: What if people could transfer money over Twitter for next to nothing, simply by typing a username and a dollar amount?

Just a decade ago, the idea of moving money that quickly and cheaply would have been ridiculous. Checks took ages to clear. Transferring money from one bank account to another could take days, as banks leisurely handed off funds, levying fees nearly every step of the way. Credit cards made it a little easier to pass money to a friend — provided that friend owned a credit card reader and didn’t mind paying a few percentage points in fees or waiting a couple of days for the payment to process.

Ivey got around that problem by using PayPal. Since 1998, PayPal had enabled people to transfer money to each other instantly. For the most part, its powers were confined to eBay, the online auction company that purchased PayPal in 2002. But last summer, PayPal began giving a small group of developers access to its code, allowing them to work with its super-sophisticated transaction framework. Ivey immediately used it to link users’ Twitter accounts to their PayPal accounts, and his new company, Twitpay, took off. Today, the service has almost 15,000 users.

That may not sound like much, but it sends a message: Moving money, once a function managed only by the biggest companies in the world, is now a feature available to any code jockey. Ivey is just one of hundreds of engineers and entrepreneurs who are attacking the payment ecosystem, seeking out ways small and large to tear down the stronghold the banks and credit card companies have built. Square, a new company founded by Twitter cocreator Jack Dorsey, lets anyone accept physical credit card payments through a smartphone or computer by plugging in a free sugar-cube-sized device — no expensive card reader required. A startup called Obopay, which has received funding from Nokia, allows phone owners to transfer money to one another with nothing more than a PIN. Amazon.com and Google are both distributing their shopping cart technologies across the Internet, letting even the lowliest etailers process credit cards for less than the old price, cutting out middlemen, and figuring out ways to bundle payments to sidestep the credit card companies’ constant nickel-and-diming. Facebook appears to be building its own payment system for virtual goods purchased on its social network and on external sites. And last March, Apple gave iTunes developers the ability to charge subscription fees through their applications, making iTunes the gateway for an entirely new breed of transaction. When Research in Motion announced a similar initiative last fall at a session of the BlackBerry Developer Conference in San Francisco, programmers crowded the room, spilling out into the hallway. About 20 percent of all online transactions now take place over so-called alternative payment systems, according to consulting firm Javelin Strategy and Research. It expects that number to grow to nearly 30 percent in just three years.

February 22, 2010

Power Plant in a Box

Filed under: Business, Technology — Raja @ 9:34 am

A company called Bloom Energy sounds amazing. A former NASA engineer KR Sridhar is working on a new type of fuell cell that can put a powerplant in a box. It is like a super computer in a  cell phone. This was John Doerr’s (the famous Kleiner Perkin’s VC) first investmentment. It has Colin Powell on its board. It was on 60 minutes. I love when someone is working on changing the world like KR is doing. Whether Bloom Energy succeeds or not as a business doesn’t matter to me. If his efforts can inspire and enable other efforts that can move the needle on alternative energies, it’s all that matters. Bloom is unveling to the public this wednesday in San Jose.


Watch CBS News Videos Online

February 11, 2010

Busy M&A Day

Filed under: Business, Technology — Raja @ 11:24 am

Google buys aardvark, social search providerm for $50M.

Zynga, social gaming company, buys serious business, another social gaming company.

Break media, web media network, buys filefront, a network of video game related websites.

Skyfire, a mobile browser maker, buys kolbysoft, who developed a browser for android.

A very busy day for M&A in the tech world.

February 6, 2010

iPad on Charlie Rose

Filed under: Business, Internet, Technology — Raja @ 12:35 pm

Charlie Rose interviews Wal Mossberg, David Carr and Mike Arrington.

January 27, 2010

Apple announces iPad

Filed under: Business, Mobile, Technology — Raja @ 12:19 pm

Steve Jobs unvelied apple’s much anticipated tablet computer - the Apple iPad.

After nearly a decade of rumors and speculation, Apple’s finally unveiled the iPad. It’s a half-inch thick and weighs just 1.5 pounds, with a 9.7-inch capacitive touchscreen IPS LCD display, and it’s running a custom 1GHz Apple “A4″ chip developed by the P.A. Semi team, with a 10-hour battery life and a month of standby. It’ll come in 16, 32, and 64GB sizes, and it’s got the expected connectivity: very little. There’s a 30-pin Dock connector, a speaker, a microphone, Bluetooth, 802.11n WiFi and optional 3G, as well as an accelerometer and a compass. There’s also a keyboard dock, which connects underneath in the portrait orientation, support for up to 1024×768 VGA out and 480p composite out through new dock adapter cables, and a camera attachment kit that lets you import photos from your camera over USB or directly through an SD reader. The device is managed by iTunes, just like the iPhone — you sync everything over to your Mac. As expected, it can run iPhone apps — either pixel-for-pixel in a window, or pixel-doubled fullscreen — but developers can also target the new screen size using the updated iPhone OS SDK, which is available today. The 3G version runs on AT&T and comes with new data plans: 250MB for $14.99 and an unlimited plan for $29.99 a month contract-free. Activations are handled on the iPad, so you can activate and cancel whenever you want. Every iPad is unlocked and comes with a GSM “micro-SIM,” so you can use it abroad, but there aren’t any international deals in place right now — Steve says they’ll be back “this summer” with news on that front.

It starts at $499 for 16GB, 32GB for $599, and $699 64GB. Adding 3G costs a $130 per model, so the most expensive model (64GB / 3G) is $829. The WiFi-only model will ship in 60 days, and the 3G models will come in 90.

There is one interesting thing in Steve Job’s announcement today. He sees apple as the worl’d leading mobile device company in the world. It is quite telling. The future of computing and internet will be centered around mobile. Steve Jobs wants apple to rule that future.

All the hype aside, I look forward to seeing the innovation this new device brings to the mobile apps area.

December 25, 2009

Role of influencers on the tipping point

Filed under: Business, general — Raja @ 10:59 am

One of Malcolm Gladwell’s famous books is the tipping point where he writes about the importance of the influencers in spreading ideas. Duncan watts disagrees.

Don’t get Duncan Watts started on the Hush Puppies. “Oh, God,” he groans when the subject comes up. “Not them.” The Hush Puppies in question are the ones that kick off The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell’s best-seller about how trends work. As Gladwell tells it, the fuzzy footwear was a dying brand by late 1994–until a few New York hipsters brought it back from the brink. Other fashionistas followed suit, whereupon the cool kids copied them, the less-cool kids copied them, and so on, until, voilà! Within two years, sales of Hush Puppies had exploded by a stunning 5,000%, without a penny spent on advertising. All because, as Gladwell puts it, a tiny number of superinfluential types (”Twenty? Fifty? One hundred–at the most?”) began wearing the shoes.

These tastemakers, Gladwell concluded, are the spark behind any successful trend. “What we are really saying,” he writes, “is that in a given process or system, some people matter more than others.” In modern marketing, this idea–that a tiny cadre of connected people triggers trends–is enormously seductive. It is the very premise of viral and word-of-mouth campaigns: Reach those rare, all-powerful folks, and you’ll reach everyone else through them, basically for free. Loosely, this is referred to as the Influentials theory, and while it has been a marketing touchstone for 50 years, it has recently reentered the mainstream imagination via thousands of marketing studies and a host of best-selling books. In addition to The Tipping Point, there was The Influentials, by marketing gurus Ed Keller and Jon Berry, as well as the gospel according to PR firms such as Burson-Marsteller, which claims “E-Fluentials” can “make or break a brand.” According to MarketingVOX, an online marketing news journal, more than $1 billion is spent a year on word-of-mouth campaigns targeting Influentials, an amount growing at 36% a year, faster than any other part of marketing and advertising. That’s on top of billions more in PR and ads leveled at the cognoscenti.

Yet, if you believe Watts, all that money and effort is being wasted. Because according to him, Influentials have no such effect. Indeed, they have no special role in trends at all.

In the past few years, Watts–a network-theory scientist who recently took a sabbatical from Columbia University and is now working for Yahoo –has performed a series of controversial, barn-burning experiments challenging the whole Influentials thesis. He has analyzed email patterns and found that highly connected people are not, in fact, crucial social hubs. He has written computer models of rumor spreading and found that your average slob is just as likely as a well-connected person to start a huge new trend. And last year, Watts demonstrated that even the breakout success of a hot new pop band might be nearly random. Any attempt to engineer success through Influentials, he argues, is almost certainly doomed to failure.

“It just doesn’t work,” Watts says, when I meet him at his gray cubicle at Yahoo Research in midtown Manhattan, which is unadorned except for a whiteboard crammed with equations. “A rare bunch of cool people just don’t have that power. And when you test the way marketers say the world works, it falls apart. There’s no there there.”

December 22, 2009

Amazon’s Netflix play

Filed under: Business, Entertainment, Internet, Media — Raja @ 2:10 pm

There are a handful of companies I consider innovative and well positioned to dominate the new digital era: Google, Apple, and Amazon are my picks. Cisco can be such a company but I don’t see enough innivation from them to join the big boys.

As a big movie fan I love Netflix. It is s a perfect fit for Amazon to buy them. If I am running Amazon I would have bought them a while ago.

It seems that Jeff Bezos is thinking along the same lines.

Netflix (NFLX) option activity is jumping as scuttlebutt says the company could be a takeover target.

Earlier today, Reuters reporter Anupreeta Das tweetedNetflix-Amazon rumor doing rounds of options market again.”

While we read on Fly On The Wall, the rumor mill/financial news aggregator, “Netflix calls active on renewed takeover chatter.”

The January $55 and $60 call options have had larger than normal trading volume. For the day, Netflix’s stock is only up 0.98% to $54.49.

In July, Netflix’s stock had a 6.6% one day jump as rumors spread that Amazon (AMZN) would buy the company.

Update: Om Malik has a good post on why it makes so much sense for Amazon to buy Netflix.

AMZN vs NFLX in 2009

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The benefits of a merger are clear. The companies are simpatico: Earnings and revenue growth rates are comparable; and corporate cultures are similar — innovative and centered on a positive consumer experience. Amazon finally gets an online-video business that consumers flock to. As Netflix moves from DVDs by mail to video over IP, it can tap into Amazon’s vast computing platform. And integrating Netflix recommendations with IMDB’s inelegant but indispensable movie database could produce the premier search-and-discovery engine for film lovers.

December 12, 2009

Apple’s Game Changer

Filed under: Business, Entertainment, Entrepreneurship, Media, Mobile, Technology, Trends — Raja @ 11:32 am

NYT has long feature on how apple’s iphone appstore is changing the development and distrubution of games and other sfotware applications.

IAN LYNCH SMITH, a shaggy-haired ball of energy in his late 30s, beams as he ticks off some of the games that Freeverse, his little Brooklyn software company, has landed on the iPhone App Store’s coveted (and ever-changing) list of best-selling downloads: Moto Chaser, Flick Fishing, Flick Bowling and Skee-ball.

Skee-ball, Mr. Smith says, took about two months to develop and deploy and then raked in $181,000 for Freeverse in one month. The company’s latest bid for App Store fame? A game featuring a Jane Austen character in a lacy dress who karate-chops her way through hordes of advancing zombies.

“There’s never been anything like this experience for mobile software,” Mr. Smith says of the App Store boom. “This is the future of digital distribution for everything: software, games, entertainment, all kinds of content.”

As the App Store evolves from a kitschy catalog of novelty applications into what analysts and aficionados describe as a platform that is rapidly transforming mobile computing and telephony, it is changing the goals and testing the patience of developers, bolstering sales of the Apple motherships the applications ride upon — the iPhone and iPod Touch — and causing Apple’s competitors to overhaul their product lines and business models. It even threatens to open chinks in Apple’s own corporate armor.

Thanks in large part to the iPhone, introduced in 2007, and the App Store, which opened its doors last year, smartphones have become the Swiss Army knives of the digital age.

They provide a staggering arsenal of functions and tools at the swipe of a finger: e-mail and text messaging, video and photography, maps and turn-by-turn navigation, media and books, music and games, mobile shopping, and even wireless keys that remotely unlock cars.

“Apple changed the view of what you can do with that small phone in your back pocket,” says Katy Huberty, a Morgan Stanley analyst. “Applications make the smartphone trend a revolutionary trend — one we haven’t seen in consumer technology for many years.”

Ms. Huberty likens the advent of the App Store and the iPhone to AOL’s pioneering role in driving broad-based consumer adoption of the Internet in the 1990s. She also draws comparisons to ways in which laptops have upended industry assumptions about consumer preferences and desktop computing. But, she notes, something even more profound may now be afoot.

“The iPhone is something different. It’s changing our behavior,” she says. “The game that Apple is playing is to become the Microsoft of the smartphone market.”

The popularity of Apple’s app model has reached a fever pitch. Tens of thousands of independent developers are clamoring to write programs for it, and the App Store’s virtual shelves are stocked with more than 100,000 applications. Apple recently said that consumers had downloaded more than two billion applications from its store.

Major players like Research in Motion (maker of the BlackBerry), Palm (maker of the Pre), Google (maker of the Android mobile operating system) and Microsoft (maker of Windows Mobile) are taking note and scrambling to replicate the App Store frenzy.

App fever has even prompted cities like New York and San Francisco to open reservoirs of city data to the public to spur software developers to create hyperlocal applications for computers and phones.

One need not look further than the lobby of Apple’s headquarters in Cupertino, Calif., to see that the iPhone and applications that run on it are centerpieces of the company’s mobile strategy. Planted squarely in the lobby of the main office, at 1 Infinite Loop, is an impressive, 24-foot-wide array built out of 20 LED screens populated with 20,000 tiny, brightly colored icons.

As Philip W. Schiller, head of worldwide product marketing at Apple, describes how the wall works — each time an application is purchased, the corresponding icon on the electronic billboard jiggles, causing its neighbors to ripple in unison — he, too, becomes animated.

Normally reserved and on message, Mr. Schiller waves his hands back and forth and allows his voice to ascend into giddy registers as he speaks about the potential unleashed by the App Store.

“I absolutely think this is the future of great software development and distribution,” Mr. Schiller says. “The idea that anyone, all the way from an individual to a large company, can create software that is innovative and be carried around in a customer’s pocket is just exploding. It’s a breakthrough, and that is the future, and every software developer sees it.”

The App Store’s success — as much a surprise to Apple as it has been to competitors — has given rise to a new digital ecosystem. Today, hundreds of software aspirants, from individuals tinkering in their bedrooms late at night to established companies looking for lucrative new revenue streams, are jumping into the App Store fray.

And smartphone manufacturers across the board are trying to make their platforms more attractive and lucrative to bring in the kind of creativity and enthusiasm that Apple has.

It’s easy to see why: Although Apple doesn’t release specific financial figures for the App Store, analysts estimate that it generates as much as a billion dollars a year in revenue for Apple and its developers.

Mobile platfroms such as iphone and android are trunly game changers that will trasnform the economics and capabilities of many industries. None comes bigger than the healthcare sector that we are targeting.

November 16, 2009

Biggest mobile opportunities

Filed under: Business, Mobile, Trends — Raja @ 4:04 pm

From Mobile Northwest conference:

So, what are the big market opportunities? Huseby said there’s two big problems that need solving in mobile: meeting bandwidth demands by carriers and how to pay for that bandwidth. “My friends and carriers are promising always-on connectivity. It’s really hard to do that….If you can think of a way to do it in a way that’s less expensive, there’s opportunities.”

He said that if bandwidth is the first problem, the next is how are carriers going to pay for it. He asked the crowd “how many people think they will pay less and consume more data in the next year?” Nearly everyone raised their hand. “They aren’t going to get the money from us. I think they will have to get it from advertising. That’s one major source of revenue.”

T-Mobile’s Puneet Tandon, who also sat on the panel, approached the question from a different view. If bandwidth is increasing exponentially, and advertising is one of the avenues for additional revenues, then measuring, monitoring and having insights into what people are doing on the mobile web will be critical.

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